Hydrogen: separating the industrial project from the financial expectation

Announcements commit more generation capacity than the electricity system will be able to deliver before 2032.

The energy transition in a resource-exporting country is not a technical problem with an optimal solution, but a distributive negotiation among regions, sectors and generations. Ignoring that dimension is the most common way for a well-designed plan not to be executed.

What we find

The analysis identifies a persistent mismatch between generation and transmission planning: projects are approved where the resource is, not where the grid is, and correcting that mismatch requires investment decisions with horizons of eight to twelve years.

Provincial regulatory capacity emerges as the most frequent limiting factor: where a dedicated technical body exists, environmental conflicts are resolved earlier and with less litigation.

Why it matters

Any credible climate strategy must include, besides targets, a construction schedule, a rent-sharing regime and an inspection mechanism with its own funding.

“Climate targets are written in years; electricity grids, in decades.”

What we propose

1. 01Integrate generation and transmission planning into a single binding, revisable instrument.
2. 02Create an inter-jurisdictional environmental inspection body funded independently of royalties.
3. 03Publish environmental monitoring data from operating projects in open formats.

Methodology

We use system operator data, land registry information and project records, complemented by interviews with provincial regulators. Projections are presented with their assumptions made explicit.

This text is part of the institute's standing editorial line. Data and replication code, where applicable, are published in the Data section.